GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
South Alabama opens a 3-point favorite. Our model gives South Alabama a 57% chance.
SeriesSouth Alabama leads 1–0 since 2023 · South Alabama won the last meeting, 28–0 · 2023
43% One-score game
40% Cover USA −3
50%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: MRSH 0, USA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $17,349 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
South Alabama vs Marshall Stats ComparisonUSA vs Marshall Stats Comparison
| South AlabamaUSA | MarshallMRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| 38.8#15 | PPG | 22#109 |
| 34.5#131 | PA/G | 33.7#129 |
| 437.8#38 | YDS/G | 406.5#58 |
| 217.5#83 | PASS/G | 247.8#50 |
| 220.3#16 | RUSH/G | 158.7#67 |
| 6.2#50 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#70 |
| 44.2%#42 | 3RD DOWN | 40.5%#75 |
| 0.23#34 | OFF PPA | 0.11#84 |
| 0.27#133 | DEF PPA | 0.31#137 |
| 43.7%#66 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.1%#59 |
| 51.4%#137 | DEF SUCCESS | 45.5%#119 |
| 78.6% | RET PROD | 98.8% |
| 1.33#22 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.24#69 |
| 1365 | ELO | 1344 |
| +8#6 | TO MARGIN | −9#136 |
| -11.1 | SP+ | -13.2 |
| -6.8#94 | FPI | -16.5#126 |
| -4.5 | SRS | -18.8 |
THE VENUE
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