GAME DAY
Week 6 · TBDBuffaloBUF0–0·MAC
BUF radioBulls Sports Network
TOL radioRocket Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Toledo a 68% chance.
SeriesToledo leads 6–5 · Buffalo won the last meeting, 30–15 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TOL
Home-field edge TOL
Model projection TOL
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Buffalo @ Toledo
Your sims:Sims: TOL 0, BUF 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Buffalo vs Toledo Stats ComparisonBuffalo vs Toledo Stats Comparison
2025 stats| BuffaloBUF | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 24#93 | PPG | 30.8#37 |
| 23.5#54 | PA/G | 13.3#4 |
| 362.2#85 | YDS/G | 415.8#34 |
| 229#64 | PASS/G | 238.1#57 |
| 133.2#97 | RUSH/G | 177.7#41 |
| 5.3#97 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#27 |
| 35.8%#103 | 3RD DOWN | 40.2%#64 |
| 0.08#113 | OFF PPA | 0.20#43 |
| 39.6%#106 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.6%#43 |
| 38.8%#38 | DEF SUCCESS | 33.1%#4 |
| 1.17#114 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#87 |
| −7#112 | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| 0.11#48 | DEF PPA | -0.08#1 |
| -0.8% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| -12.7 | SP+ | -9.1 |
| -10.8#113 | FPI | -3.0#79 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Glass BowlLocationToledo, OH
Capacity26,038
SurfaceTurf
Opened1937
Elevation595 ft
FAN NEWS
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