GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·South Dakota StateSDST–
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Northwestern opens a 12.5-point favorite. Our model gives Northwestern a 78% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
What's driving the model
Home-field edge NU
Market lean NU
Model projection NU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
South Dakota St @ Northwestern
Your sims:Sims: NU 0, SDST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Northwestern
Northwestern2025: 7–6 (4–5 B1G)
Wvs Central Michigan34–7Lat Illinois20–13Wvs Minnesota38–35Northwestern2025: 7–6 (4–5 B1G)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADSDST +12.5NU −12.5
TOTALOver 46.5Under 46.5
MONEYLINESDST +455NU −625
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
South Dakota State vs Northwestern Stats ComparisonSDST vs Northwestern Stats Comparison
2025 stats| South Dakota StateSDST | NorthwesternNU | |
|---|---|---|
| – | PPG | 23.4#98 |
| – | PA/G | 19.8#23 |
| – | YDS/G | 346.8#98 |
| – | PASS/G | 185.9#108 |
| – | RUSH/G | 160.9#64 |
| – | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#81 |
| – | 3RD DOWN | 42.9%#37 |
| – | TO MARGIN | −1#77 |
| – | OFF PPA | 0.15#84 |
| – | DEF PPA | 0.17#80 |
| – | OFF SUCCESS | 43.0%#60 |
| – | DEF SUCCESS | 45.1%#123 |
| – | RET PROD | 88.5% |
| – | EXPLOSIVE | 1.17#110 |
| – | SP+ | 5.1 |
| – | FPI | 1.4#60 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Lanny and Sharon Martin StadiumLocationEvanston, IL
Capacity12,023
SurfaceTurf
Opened1997
Elevation587 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about South Dakota State or Northwestern?
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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
