GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Mississippi State opens a 28.5-point favorite. Our model gives Mississippi State a 96% chance.
SeriesMississippi State leads 4–1–1 · Mississippi State won the last meeting, 24–10 · 1997
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) MSST
Home-field edge MSST
Market lean MSST
Model projection MSST
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
UL Monroe @ Mississippi State
Your sims:Sims: MSST 0, ULM 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3UL Monroe
UL Monroe2025: 3–9 (1–7 SBC)
Lat Louisiana30–27 (OT)Lat Texas State31–14Lvs South Alabama26–14UL Monroe2025: 3–9 (1–7 SBC)Mississippi State
Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)
Lvs Wake Forest43–29Lvs Ole Miss38–19Lat Missouri49–27Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADULM +28.5MSST −28.5
TOTALOver 54.5Under 54.5
MONEYLINEULM +1800MSST −5000
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
UL Monroe vs Mississippi State Stats ComparisonUL Monroe vs MSST Stats Comparison
2025 stats| UL MonroeULM | Mississippi StateMSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 16.6#130 | PPG | 30.4#42 |
| 31.9#119 | PA/G | 30.2#106 |
| 322.2#118 | YDS/G | 399.2#56 |
| 159.6#124 | PASS/G | 241.4#54 |
| 162.6#63 | RUSH/G | 157.8#68 |
| 5.3#97 | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#81 |
| 32.7%#124 | 3RD DOWN | 42.7%#38 |
| 0.08#115 | OFF PPA | 0.15#80 |
| 0.19#90 | DEF PPA | 0.20#107 |
| 37.0%#121 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.0%#73 |
| 40.7%#57 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.3%#94 |
| 38.7% | RET PROD | 33.9% |
| 1.37#11 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.28#44 |
| −10#123 | TO MARGIN | +3#46 |
| -28.9 | SP+ | 4.8 |
| -19.3#138 | FPI | 4.1#49 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Davis Wade StadiumLocationStarkville, MS
Capacity61,337
SurfaceGrass
Opened1914
Elevation362 ft
FAN NEWS
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