GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·FAU radioFlorida Atlantic Sports Network
UNT radioMean Green Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives North Texas a 58% chance.
SeriesFlorida Atlantic leads 8–7 since 2004 · North Texas won the last meeting, 41–37 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FAU
Home-field edge UNT
Model projection UNT
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas
Your sims:Sims: UNT 0, FAU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida Atlantic
Lat Army56–24Wvs Texas Southern66–10Wat UL Monroe45–17
North Texas
Wvs Charlotte50–10Wat Tulsa45–44 (OT)Wvs Houston Christian63–14
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUNT 58%MarketUNT 77%
Market 19 points higher than our model
Kalshi · $706 traded · as of Oct 20, 1:40 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Florida Atlantic vs North Texas Stats ComparisonFAU vs North Texas Stats Comparison
| Florida AtlanticFAU | North TexasUNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 35#37 | PPG | 42.2#5 |
| 31.5#118 | PA/G | 29.2#113 |
| 422.3#46 | YDS/G | 527.2#3 |
| 307.3#9 | PASS/G | 345.5#2 |
| 115#122 | RUSH/G | 181.7#46 |
| 5.6#86 | YDS/PLAY | 7.2#7 |
| 53.1%#9 | 3RD DOWN | 48.8%#21 |
| +2#47 | TO MARGIN | +2#47 |
| 0.18#55 | OFF PPA | 0.30#14 |
| 0.25#131 | DEF PPA | 0.08#74 |
| 45.2%#51 | OFF SUCCESS | 48.0%#27 |
| 42.5%#94 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.1%#78 |
| 68.4% | RET PROD | 2.5% |
| 1.23#74 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.33#18 |
| 1240 | ELO | 1669 |
| 0.1 | SP+ | -1.0 |
| -10.1#107 | FPI | 2.1#59 |
| -7.4 | SRS | 6.8 |
THE VENUE
DATCU StadiumLocationDenton, TX
Capacity30,850
SurfaceTurf
Opened2011
Elevation652 ft
FAN NEWS
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