GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
North Texas opens a 2.5-point favorite. Our model gives North Texas a 53% chance.
SeriesNavy leads 2–1 · North Texas won the last meeting, 31–17 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
NAVY win
47% One-score game
41% Cover UNT −2.5
47%
47% One-score game
41% Cover UNT −2.5
47%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) UNT
Home-field edge NAVY
Market lean UNT
Model projection UNT
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
North Texas @ Navy
Your sims:Sims: NAVY 0, UNT 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3North Texas
Wvs Charlotte50–10Wat Tulsa45–44 (OT)Wvs Houston Christian63–14
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUNT 53%MarketUNT 55%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $8,474 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:00 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADUNT −2.5NAVY +2.5
TOTALOver 61.5Under 61.5
MONEYLINEUNT −130NAVY +110
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
North Texas vs Navy Stats ComparisonNorth Texas vs Navy Stats Comparison
| North TexasUNT | NavyNAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| 42.2#5 | PPG | 28.2#76 |
| 29.2#113 | PA/G | 25.8#91 |
| 527.2#3 | YDS/G | 414#54 |
| 345.5#2 | PASS/G | 115.5#134 |
| 181.7#46 | RUSH/G | 298.5#4 |
| 7.2#7 | YDS/PLAY | 6.4#37 |
| 48.8%#21 | 3RD DOWN | 43.5%#47 |
| 0.30#14 | OFF PPA | 0.23#31 |
| 0.08#74 | DEF PPA | 0.12#95 |
| 48.0%#28 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.9%#31 |
| 41.1%#78 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.4%#38 |
| 2.5% | RET PROD | 13.8% |
| 1.33#18 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.19#91 |
| 1669 | ELO | 1493 |
| +2#47 | TO MARGIN | −6#128 |
| -1.0 | SP+ | -0.2 |
| 2.1#59 | FPI | -5.5#91 |
| 6.8 | SRS | -6.7 |
THE VENUE
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial StadiumLocationAnnapolis, MD
Capacity34,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1959
Elevation35 ft
FAN NEWS
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