GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Baylor opens a 3-point favorite. Our model gives Baylor a 57% chance.
SeriesBaylor leads 19–4 · Baylor won the last meeting, 45–17 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) BAY
Home-field edge KU
Market lean BAY
Model projection BAY
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Baylor @ Kansas
Your sims:Sims: KU 0, BAY 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelBAY 57%MarketBAY 57%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $8,727 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:00 AM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADBAY −3KU +3
TOTALOver 53.5Under 53.5
MONEYLINEBAY −142KU +120
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Baylor vs Kansas Stats ComparisonBaylor vs Kansas Stats Comparison
| BaylorBAY | KansasKU | |
|---|---|---|
| 30#65 | PPG | 32#50 |
| 14.7#9 | PA/G | 24#74 |
| 436.8#39 | YDS/G | 449.7#29 |
| 284.5#17 | PASS/G | 242.5#55 |
| 152.3#76 | RUSH/G | 207.2#23 |
| 5.3#111 | YDS/PLAY | 6.5#28 |
| 39.8%#79 | 3RD DOWN | 38.8%#82 |
| 0.10#87 | OFF PPA | 0.22#36 |
| 37.4%#126 | OFF SUCCESS | 46.0%#42 |
| 34.4%#13 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.0%#34 |
| 60.2% | RET PROD | 18.1% |
| 1.40#7 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.35#16 |
| 1615 | ELO | 1594 |
| 12.7 | SP+ | 7.2 |
| 10.0#34 | FPI | 3.7#55 |
| +1#61 | TO MARGIN | −3#100 |
| -0.09#9 | DEF PPA | 0.02#42 |
| 8.0 | SRS | -0.3 |
THE VENUE
Memorial StadiumLocationLawrence, KS
Capacity47,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1921
Elevation902 ft
FAN NEWS
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