GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Navy opens a 30.5-point favorite. Our model gives Navy a 99% chance.
SeriesNavy leads 1–0 · Navy won the last meeting, 41–13 · 2008
What's driving the model
Home-field edge NAVY
Market lean NAVY
Model projection NAVY
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Towson @ Navy
Your sims:Sims: NAVY 0, TOW 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3TowsonTowson2025: 0–1
Lat Maryland44–17Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Navy98%- Towson3%
CFB Vibes ModelNAVY 99%MarketNAVY 98%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $16,297 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADTOW +30.5NAVY −30.5
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINETOW +4000NAVY −50000
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Towson vs Navy Stats ComparisonTowson vs Navy Stats Comparison
2025 stats| TowsonTOW | NavyNAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| – | PPG | 31.5#30 |
| – | PA/G | 25#69 |
| – | YDS/G | 416.1#33 |
| – | PASS/G | 130#133 |
| – | RUSH/G | 286.1#1 |
| – | YDS/PLAY | 6.6#18 |
| – | 3RD DOWN | 51.8%#4 |
| – | TO MARGIN | +1#66 |
| – | OFF PPA | 0.30#15 |
| – | DEF PPA | 0.21#110 |
| – | OFF SUCCESS | 49.0%#8 |
| – | DEF SUCCESS | 40.4%#54 |
| – | RET PROD | 13.8% |
| – | EXPLOSIVE | 1.24#64 |
| – | SP+ | 1.2 |
| – | FPI | -0.7#69 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial StadiumLocationAnnapolis, MD
Capacity34,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1959
Elevation35 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Towson or Navy?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
