GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Alabama opens a 27.5-point favorite. Our model gives Alabama a 99% chance.
SeriesAlabama leads 1–0 · Alabama won the last meeting, 23–22 · 1998
99% One-score game
4% Cover ALA −27.5
71%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: ALA 0, ECU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
East Carolina2025: 9–4 (6–2 AAC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Alabama98%- East Carolina3%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $105,424 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
East Carolina vs Alabama Stats ComparisonECU vs Alabama Stats Comparison
2025 stats| East CarolinaECU | AlabamaALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 32.7#24 | PPG | 29.5#49 |
| 20.1#25 | PA/G | 19.2#20 |
| 449#19 | YDS/G | 367.7#84 |
| 272.7#21 | PASS/G | 263.5#29 |
| 176.3#46 | RUSH/G | 104.2#127 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 47.2%#15 | 3RD DOWN | 41.7%#45 |
| +10#11 | TO MARGIN | +7#21 |
| 0.19#49 | OFF PPA | 0.21#37 |
| 0.05#16 | DEF PPA | 0.07#28 |
| 45.8%#29 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.3%#54 |
| 37.6%#24 | DEF SUCCESS | 37.4%#21 |
| 13.6% | RET PROD | 26.4% |
| 1.16#118 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.27#48 |
| -2.3 | SP+ | 17.6 |
| -0.6#68 | FPI | 20.1#8 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Bryant-Denny StadiumFAN NEWS
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