GAME DAY
Week 5 · TBDUVA radioVirginia Sports Radio Network
FSU radioSeminole Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Florida State a 62% chance.
SeriesFlorida State leads 15–5 · Virginia won the last meeting, 46–38 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FSU
Home-field edge FSU
Model projection FSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Virginia @ Florida State
Your sims:Sims: FSU 0, UVA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Virginia
Virginia2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)
Wvs NC State34–8Virginia2026: 1–0 (1–0 ACC)Florida State
Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs New Mexico State34–17Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Virginia vs Florida State Stats ComparisonVirginia vs FSU Stats Comparison
| VirginiaUVA | Florida StateFSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | PPG | 34 |
| 8 | PA/G | 17 |
| 413 | YDS/G | 419 |
| 155 | PASS/G | 202 |
| 258 | RUSH/G | 217 |
| 6.1 | YDS/PLAY | 6.3 |
| 21.4% | 3RD DOWN | 57.1% |
| 0.27 | OFF PPA | 0.29 |
| 47.9% | OFF SUCCESS | 44.8% |
| 31.4% | DEF SUCCESS | 34.3% |
| 9.5% | RET PROD | 40.1% |
| 1.06 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.32 |
| 8.1 | SP+ | 9.1 |
| 7.9#32 | FPI | 9.3#28 |
| +2 | TO MARGIN | +0 |
| -0.14 | DEF PPA | 0.16 |
THE VENUE
Doak Campbell StadiumLocationTallahassee, FL
Capacity67,277
SurfaceGrass
Opened1950
Elevation64 ft
FAN NEWS
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