GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·NC StateNCSU3–3·ACC
StanfordSTAN3–4·ACC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
NC State opens a 7-point favorite. Our model gives NC State a 71% chance.
SeriesNC State leads 1–0 · NC State won the last meeting, 59–28 · 2024
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
STAN win
29% One-score game
35% Cover NCSU −7
55%
29% One-score game
35% Cover NCSU −7
55%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) NCSU
Home-field edge STAN
Market lean NCSU
Model projection NCSU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
NC State @ Stanford
Your sims:Sims: STAN 0, NCSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelNCSU 71%MarketNCSU 72%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $60,289 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:00 AM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADNCSU −7STAN +7
TOTALOver 55.5Under 55.5
MONEYLINENCSU −278STAN +225
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
NC State vs Stanford Stats ComparisonNC State vs Stanford Stats Comparison
| NC StateNCSU | StanfordSTAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 33#44 | PPG | 18.3#127 |
| 27.7#104 | PA/G | 36.6#133 |
| 426.3#43 | YDS/G | 345#105 |
| 257.8#41 | PASS/G | 239.4#59 |
| 168.5#54 | RUSH/G | 105.6#128 |
| 6#59 | YDS/PLAY | 5.3#111 |
| 51.7%#12 | 3RD DOWN | 33.3%#118 |
| 0.19#48 | OFF PPA | 0.09#93 |
| 0.16#110 | DEF PPA | 0.32#138 |
| 45.6%#45 | OFF SUCCESS | 38.6%#120 |
| 42.0%#89 | DEF SUCCESS | 47.7%#130 |
| 59.9% | RET PROD | 21.3% |
| 1.24#66 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#86 |
| 1471 | ELO | 1111 |
| −1#82 | TO MARGIN | +1#61 |
| -1.3 | SP+ | -14.9 |
| 1.1#62 | FPI | -11.4#108 |
| -2.2 | SRS | -10.1 |
THE VENUE
Stanford StadiumLocationStanford, CA
Capacity50,424
SurfaceGrass
Opened2006
Elevation60 ft
FAN NEWS
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