GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
USC opens a 22.5-point favorite. Our model gives USC a 92% chance.
SeriesUSC leads 5–1 · USC won the last meeting, 45–17 · 2022
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) USC
Home-field edge USC
Market lean USC
Model projection USC
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Fresno State @ USC
Your sims:Sims: USC 0, FRES 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3USC
USC2026: 1–0 (0–0 B1G)
Wvs San José State42–26USC2026: 1–0 (0–0 B1G)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADFRES +22.5USC −22.5
TOTALOver 51.5Under 51.5
MONEYLINEFRES +1200USC −2400
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Fresno State vs USC Stats ComparisonFresno State vs USC Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Fresno StateFRES | USCUSC | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.8#81 | PPG | 35.8#13 |
| 18.8#16 | PA/G | 23#51 |
| 354.1#94 | YDS/G | 465.2#8 |
| 183.4#112 | PASS/G | 296#5 |
| 170.7#54 | RUSH/G | 169.2#56 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 7.2#3 |
| 36.4%#100 | 3RD DOWN | 51.3%#5 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| 0.10#103 | OFF PPA | 0.34#4 |
| 0.08#31 | DEF PPA | 0.15#64 |
| 39.7%#105 | OFF SUCCESS | 49.0%#8 |
| 38.1%#31 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.8%#115 |
| 38.3% | RET PROD | 59.2% |
| 1.21#87 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.34#21 |
| -1.4 | SP+ | 17.7 |
| -2.5#77 | FPI | 17.0#13 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Memorial ColiseumLocationLos Angeles, CA
Capacity77,500
SurfaceGrass
Opened1923
Elevation139 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Fresno State or USC?
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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
