GAME DAY
Week 12 · TBDUSA radioJaguar Sports Network
USM radioSouthern Miss Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives South Alabama a 55% chance.
SeriesSouth Alabama leads 6–0 · South Alabama won the last meeting, 42–35 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) USA
Home-field edge USM
Model projection USA
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
South Alabama @ Southern Miss
Your sims:Sims: USM 0, USA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3South Alabama
South Alabama2025: 4–8 (3–5 SBC)
Lat Texas State49–26Wvs Southern Miss42–35Wat UL Monroe26–14South Alabama2025: 4–8 (3–5 SBC)Southern Miss
Southern Miss2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)
Lvs Western Kentucky27–16Lvs Troy28–18Lat South Alabama42–35Southern Miss2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
South Alabama vs Southern Miss Stats ComparisonUSA vs USM Stats Comparison
2025 stats| South AlabamaUSA | Southern MissUSM | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.5#76 | PPG | 28.8#58 |
| 30.4#110 | PA/G | 27.4#84 |
| 382.2#75 | YDS/G | 401.8#54 |
| 181.1#114 | PASS/G | 266#26 |
| 201.2#18 | RUSH/G | 135.8#93 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 42.6%#39 | 3RD DOWN | 39.7%#70 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | +14#4 |
| 0.16#74 | OFF PPA | 0.16#71 |
| 0.24#120 | DEF PPA | 0.12#54 |
| 41.8%#76 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.5%#107 |
| 43.3%#94 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.5%#68 |
| 78.6% | RET PROD | 90.2% |
| 1.20#98 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.33#25 |
| -14.6 | SP+ | -20.7 |
| -10.5#112 | FPI | -5.1#87 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
M. M. Roberts StadiumLocationHattiesburg, MS
Capacity36,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1932
Elevation212 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about South Alabama or Southern Miss?
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