GAME DAY
Week 13 · ·FloridaFLA0–0·SEC
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Florida opens a 4.5-point favorite. Our model gives Florida a 61% chance.
SeriesFlorida leads 39–29–2 · Florida won the last meeting, 40–21 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge FSU
Market lean FLA
Model projection FLA
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Florida @ Florida State
Your sims:Sims: FSU 0, FLA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida State
Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs New Mexico State34–17Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADFLA −4.5FSU +4.5
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINEFLA −205FSU +170
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Florida vs Florida State Stats ComparisonFlorida vs FSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| FloridaFLA | Florida StateFSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21.6#111 | PPG | 33#22 |
| 24#60 | PA/G | 22#43 |
| 341.3#104 | YDS/G | 472.2#6 |
| 204.6#93 | PASS/G | 253.4#40 |
| 136.8#91 | RUSH/G | 218.8#11 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#13 |
| 34.4%#113 | 3RD DOWN | 50.6%#8 |
| 0.14#87 | OFF PPA | 0.30#14 |
| 0.17#81 | DEF PPA | 0.15#63 |
| 42.9%#62 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.2%#17 |
| 42.9%#91 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.5%#55 |
| 69.1% | RET PROD | 40.1% |
| 1.10#133 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.36#16 |
| 15.2 | SP+ | 9.1 |
| 13.6#18 | FPI | 9.3#28 |
| −1#77 | TO MARGIN | −5#103 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Doak Campbell StadiumLocationTallahassee, FL
Capacity67,277
SurfaceGrass
Opened1950
Elevation64 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 13 GAMES
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