GAME DAY
Week 13 · ·FloridaFLA5–2·SEC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Florida opens a 4.5-point favorite. Our model gives Florida a 61% chance.
SeriesFlorida leads 39–29–2 · Florida won the last meeting, 40–21 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) FLA
Home-field edge FSU
Market lean FLA
Model projection FLA
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Florida @ Florida State
Your sims:Sims: FSU 0, FLA 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADFLA −4.5FSU +4.5
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINEFLA −205FSU +170
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Florida vs Florida State Stats ComparisonFlorida vs FSU Stats Comparison
| FloridaFLA | Florida StateFSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 39.6#11 | PPG | 31.6#55 |
| 28.3#109 | PA/G | 27.9#107 |
| 450.9#26 | YDS/G | 414.3#53 |
| 256.6#42 | PASS/G | 234.1#65 |
| 194.3#35 | RUSH/G | 180.1#48 |
| 6.3#43 | YDS/PLAY | 6.4#37 |
| 45.1%#36 | 3RD DOWN | 42.2%#57 |
| 0.25#25 | OFF PPA | 0.20#45 |
| 0.07#68 | DEF PPA | 0.18#114 |
| 45.7%#44 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.3%#72 |
| 41.7%#84 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.3%#92 |
| 69.1% | RET PROD | 40.1% |
| 1.22#77 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.39#12 |
| 1643 | ELO | 1609 |
| 11.0 | SP+ | 5.8 |
| 14.3#19 | FPI | 9.6#36 |
| 13.7 | SRS | 5.6 |
| +2#47 | TO MARGIN | −4#111 |
THE VENUE
Doak Campbell StadiumLocationTallahassee, FL
Capacity67,277
SurfaceGrass
Opened1950
Elevation64 ft
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