GAME DAY
Week 13 · ·TROY radioTroy Sports Network
ARST radioRed Wolves Sports Network
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Arkansas State a 56% chance.
SeriesArkansas State leads 11–9 · Arkansas State won the last meeting, 23–10 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TROY
Home-field edge ARST
Model projection ARST
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Troy @ Arkansas State
Your sims:Sims: ARST 0, TROY 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Arkansas State
Wat Southern Miss23–13Lvs South Alabama56–49Lat Louisiana23–20
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Troy vs Arkansas State Stats ComparisonTroy vs ARST Stats Comparison
| TroyTROY | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 24.3#92 | PPG | 27.4#81 |
| 25.5#83 | PA/G | 26.6#95 |
| 402.7#63 | YDS/G | 366#87 |
| 198#102 | PASS/G | 233#67 |
| 204.7#27 | RUSH/G | 133#106 |
| 5.8#70 | YDS/PLAY | 5.9#64 |
| 36.5%#98 | 3RD DOWN | 45.1%#36 |
| 0.09#95 | OFF PPA | 0.16#64 |
| 0.08#77 | DEF PPA | 0.14#104 |
| 41.3%#90 | OFF SUCCESS | 48.2%#25 |
| 40.9%#72 | DEF SUCCESS | 45.0%#117 |
| 35.3% | RET PROD | 30.0% |
| 1.25#59 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.13#119 |
| 1359 | ELO | 1321 |
| +0#70 | TO MARGIN | +3#33 |
| -6.6 | SP+ | -8.0 |
| -9.6#105 | FPI | -8.5#99 |
| -11.7 | SRS | -7.7 |
THE VENUE
Centennial Bank StadiumLocationJonesboro, AR
Capacity30,382
SurfaceTurf
Opened1974
Elevation294 ft
FAN NEWS
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