GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·Tarleton StateTAR–
StreamingESPN+
BGSU radioFalcon Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Bowling Green opens a 2.5-point favorite. Our model gives Bowling Green a 56% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
What's driving the model
Home-field edge BGSU
Market lean BGSU
Model projection BGSU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Tarleton State @ Bowling Green
Your sims:Sims: BGSU 0, TAR 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Tarleton StateTarleton State2025: 1–0
Wat Army30–27 (OT)Bowling Green
Bowling Green2025: 4–8 (2–6 MAC)
Wat Massachusetts45–14Lvs Akron19–16Lat Eastern Michigan27–21Bowling Green2025: 4–8 (2–6 MAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADTAR +2.5BGSU −2.5
TOTALOver 48.5Under 48.5
MONEYLINETAR +114BGSU −135
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Tarleton State vs Bowling Green Stats ComparisonTAR vs BGSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Tarleton StateTAR | Bowling GreenBGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| – | PPG | 20.5#117 |
| – | PA/G | 24.2#63 |
| – | YDS/G | 306.8#125 |
| – | PASS/G | 151.2#126 |
| – | RUSH/G | 155.5#71 |
| – | YDS/PLAY | 4.9#120 |
| – | 3RD DOWN | 36.7%#98 |
| – | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| – | OFF PPA | 0.03#129 |
| – | DEF PPA | 0.15#60 |
| – | OFF SUCCESS | 35.9%#127 |
| – | DEF SUCCESS | 40.5%#55 |
| – | RET PROD | -6.2% |
| – | EXPLOSIVE | 1.24#68 |
| – | SP+ | -15.0 |
| – | FPI | -13.7#123 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Doyt L. Perry StadiumLocationBowling Green, OH
Capacity24,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1966
Elevation676 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Tarleton State or Bowling Green?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
