GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·Iowa StateISU3–3·B12
ArizonaARIZ5–1·B12
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Arizona opens a 10-point favorite. Our model gives Arizona a 73% chance.
SeriesArizona leads 4–2–1 · Iowa State won the last meeting, 39–14 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) ARIZ
Home-field edge ARIZ
Market lean ARIZ
Model projection ARIZ
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Iowa State @ Arizona
Your sims:Sims: ARIZ 0, ISU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelARIZ 73%MarketARIZ 75%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $13,240 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:00 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADISU +10ARIZ −10
TOTALOver 50.5Under 50.5
MONEYLINEISU +260ARIZ −325
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Iowa State vs Arizona Stats ComparisonIowa State vs Arizona Stats Comparison
| Iowa StateISU | ArizonaARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.7#68 | PPG | 35.7#29 |
| 21.7#50 | PA/G | 19#32 |
| 359.7#94 | YDS/G | 456.5#21 |
| 178.2#119 | PASS/G | 303.8#10 |
| 181.5#47 | RUSH/G | 152.7#75 |
| 5.8#70 | YDS/PLAY | 6.8#14 |
| 31.0%#127 | 3RD DOWN | 55.6%#4 |
| 0.13#80 | OFF PPA | 0.24#29 |
| 39.3%#111 | OFF SUCCESS | 49.4%#15 |
| 40.4%#66 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.0%#20 |
| 1.7% | RET PROD | 64.9% |
| 1.30#31 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#77 |
| 1643 | ELO | 1719 |
| 1.0 | SP+ | 15.2 |
| 4.3#54 | FPI | 10.5#33 |
| 6.1 | SRS | 12.3 |
| +3#33 | TO MARGIN | −3#100 |
| 0.07#73 | DEF PPA | -0.04#18 |
THE VENUE
Arizona StadiumLocationTucson, AZ
Capacity50,782
SurfaceTurf
Opened1928
Elevation2,435 ft
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