GAME DAY
Week 12 · · Watch College Football live with Fubo for $0 TodayWatch free on ▸ (opens in a new tab)
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Toledo a 89% chance.
SeriesToledo leads 33–30–1 · Bowling Green won the last meeting, 28–23 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TOL
Home-field edge TOL
Model projection TOL
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Bowling Green @ Toledo
Your sims:Sims: TOL 0, BGSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Bowling Green
Lvs Ball State32–31 (OT)Wvs Sacramento State38–10Wat Miami (OH)24–20
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Bowling Green vs Toledo Stats ComparisonBGSU vs Toledo Stats Comparison
| Bowling GreenBGSU | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 18#129 | PPG | 36.3#28 |
| 29.6#114 | PA/G | 23.6#69 |
| 280.4#136 | YDS/G | 459#20 |
| 174.4#121 | PASS/G | 273.4#27 |
| 106#127 | RUSH/G | 185.6#41 |
| 4.8#130 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#20 |
| 36.5%#98 | 3RD DOWN | 43.6%#45 |
| 38.9%#116 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.6%#68 |
| 46.9%#128 | DEF SUCCESS | 32.7%#2 |
| 1.08#133 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.38#14 |
| 1234 | ELO | 1548 |
| −1#82 | TO MARGIN | +0#70 |
| -0.01#123 | OFF PPA | 0.23#32 |
| 0.15#109 | DEF PPA | -0.03#28 |
| -6.2% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| -17.9 | SP+ | -2.1 |
| -17.7#129 | FPI | -3.4#84 |
| -14.0 | SRS | -0.8 |
THE VENUE
Glass BowlLocationToledo, OH
Capacity26,038
SurfaceTurf
Opened1937
Elevation595 ft
FAN NEWS
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