GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Toledo a 73% chance.
SeriesToledo leads 33–30–1 · Bowling Green won the last meeting, 28–23 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) TOL
Home-field edge TOL
Model projection TOL
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Bowling Green @ Toledo
Your sims:Sims: TOL 0, BGSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Bowling Green
Bowling Green2025: 4–8 (2–6 MAC)
Wat Massachusetts45–14Lvs Akron19–16Lat Eastern Michigan27–21Bowling Green2025: 4–8 (2–6 MAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Bowling Green vs Toledo Stats ComparisonBGSU vs Toledo Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Bowling GreenBGSU | ToledoTOL | |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5#117 | PPG | 30.8#37 |
| 24.2#63 | PA/G | 13.3#4 |
| 306.8#125 | YDS/G | 415.8#34 |
| 151.2#126 | PASS/G | 238.1#57 |
| 155.5#71 | RUSH/G | 177.7#41 |
| 4.9#120 | YDS/PLAY | 6.2#27 |
| 36.7%#98 | 3RD DOWN | 40.2%#64 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| 0.03#129 | OFF PPA | 0.20#43 |
| 35.9%#127 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.6%#43 |
| 40.5%#55 | DEF SUCCESS | 33.1%#4 |
| 1.24#68 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#87 |
| 0.15#60 | DEF PPA | -0.08#1 |
| -6.2% | RET PROD | 66.3% |
| -15.0 | SP+ | -9.1 |
| -13.7#123 | FPI | -3.0#79 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Glass BowlLocationToledo, OH
Capacity26,038
SurfaceTurf
Opened1937
Elevation595 ft
FAN NEWS
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