GAME DAY
Week 4 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives New Mexico a 81% chance.
SeriesNew Mexico leads 65–24–2 · New Mexico won the last meeting, 38–20 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) UNM
Home-field edge NMSU
Model projection UNM
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
New Mexico @ New Mexico State
Your sims:Sims: NMSU 0, UNM 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3New Mexico State
New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)
Lat Florida State34–17New Mexico State2026: 0–1 (0–0 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Stats ComparisonNew Mexico vs NMSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| New MexicoUNM | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27.1#73 | PPG | 21.6#111 |
| 22.3#46 | PA/G | 27.6#88 |
| 357.2#90 | YDS/G | 327.8#115 |
| 204.8#92 | PASS/G | 250.3#45 |
| 152.4#76 | RUSH/G | 77.4#136 |
| 5.7#65 | YDS/PLAY | 4.8#127 |
| 39.4%#72 | 3RD DOWN | 41.7%#45 |
| 0.16#74 | OFF PPA | 0.03#128 |
| 0.10#45 | DEF PPA | 0.10#41 |
| 40.8%#88 | OFF SUCCESS | 36.4%#124 |
| 39.5%#46 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.9%#72 |
| 58.2% | RET PROD | 24.4% |
| 1.25#55 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#58 |
| −6#108 | TO MARGIN | −1#77 |
| 0.0 | SP+ | -18.5 |
| -3.5#81 | FPI | -15.7#129 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Aggie Memorial StadiumLocationLas Cruces, NM
Capacity28,853
SurfaceTurf
Opened1978
Elevation3,964 ft
FAN NEWS
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