GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·Alcorn StateALCN–
StreamingESPN+
USM radioSouthern Miss Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Southern Miss opens a 20.5-point favorite. Our model gives Southern Miss a 90% chance.
SeriesSouthern Miss leads 4–0 · Southern Miss won the last meeting, 40–14 · 2023
What's driving the model
Home-field edge USM
Market lean USM
Model projection USM
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Alcorn State @ Southern Miss
Your sims:Sims: USM 0, ALCN 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Alcorn StateAlcorn State2025: 0–1
Lat Mississippi State63–0Southern Miss
Southern Miss2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)
Lvs Western Kentucky27–16Lvs Troy28–18Lat South Alabama42–35Southern Miss2025: 7–6 (5–3 SBC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADALCN +20.5USM −20.5
TOTALOver 50.5Under 50.5
MONEYLINEALCN +750USM −1200
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Alcorn State vs Southern Miss Stats ComparisonAlcorn State vs USM Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Alcorn StateALCN | Southern MissUSM | |
|---|---|---|
| – | PPG | 28.8#58 |
| – | PA/G | 27.4#84 |
| – | YDS/G | 401.8#54 |
| – | PASS/G | 266#26 |
| – | RUSH/G | 135.8#93 |
| – | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| – | 3RD DOWN | 39.7%#70 |
| – | TO MARGIN | +14#4 |
| – | OFF PPA | 0.16#71 |
| – | DEF PPA | 0.12#54 |
| – | OFF SUCCESS | 39.5%#107 |
| – | DEF SUCCESS | 41.5%#68 |
| – | RET PROD | 90.2% |
| – | EXPLOSIVE | 1.33#25 |
| – | SP+ | -20.7 |
| – | FPI | -5.1#87 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
M. M. Roberts StadiumLocationHattiesburg, MS
Capacity36,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1932
Elevation212 ft
FAN NEWS
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