GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
TCU opens a 8.5-point favorite. Our model gives TCU a 71% chance.
SeriesWest Virginia leads 8–6 · TCU won the last meeting, 23–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) TCU
Home-field edge TCU
Market lean TCU
Model projection TCU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
West Virginia @ TCU
Your sims:Sims: TCU 0, WVU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelTCU 71%MarketTCU 75%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $7,226 traded · as of Oct 20, 6:20 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADWVU +8.5TCU −8.5
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINEWVU +250TCU −310
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
West Virginia vs TCU Stats ComparisonWVU vs TCU Stats Comparison
| West VirginiaWVU | TCUTCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 37.6#19 | PPG | 24#95 |
| 34#130 | PA/G | 12.2#3 |
| 497.1#8 | YDS/G | 393.7#67 |
| 224.7#76 | PASS/G | 282.3#20 |
| 272.4#5 | RUSH/G | 111.3#124 |
| 6.4#37 | YDS/PLAY | 6#59 |
| 49.5%#18 | 3RD DOWN | 41.5%#66 |
| 0.18#53 | OFF PPA | 0.11#86 |
| 43.6%#68 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.3%#72 |
| 47.0%#129 | DEF SUCCESS | 33.1%#6 |
| 14.0% | RET PROD | 22.4% |
| 1.33#19 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.27#45 |
| 1341 | ELO | 1628 |
| 0.4#67 | FPI | 8.6#42 |
| 1.4 | SRS | 10.5 |
| +0#70 | TO MARGIN | −1#82 |
| 0.25#130 | DEF PPA | -0.12#6 |
| -0.6 | SP+ | 9.2 |
THE VENUE
Amon G. Carter StadiumLocationFort Worth, TX
Capacity46,000
SurfaceGrass
Opened1929
Elevation608 ft
FAN NEWS
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