GAME DAY
Week 9 · ·MissouriMIZ5–2·SEC
ArkansasARK3–4·SEC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Missouri a 84% chance.
SeriesMissouri leads 13–4 · Missouri won the last meeting, 31–17 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) MIZ
Home-field edge ARK
Model projection MIZ
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Missouri @ Arkansas
Your sims:Sims: ARK 0, MIZ 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelMIZ 84%MarketMIZ 73%
Market 11 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $363 traded · as of Oct 20, 1:40 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Missouri vs Arkansas Stats ComparisonMissouri vs Arkansas Stats Comparison
| MissouriMIZ | ArkansasARK | |
|---|---|---|
| 31.1#60 | PPG | 21#116 |
| 19.6#37 | PA/G | 26.7#96 |
| 430.3#40 | YDS/G | 343#106 |
| 265.9#34 | PASS/G | 231.4#70 |
| 164.4#60 | RUSH/G | 111.6#123 |
| 6.3#43 | YDS/PLAY | 5#121 |
| 41.4%#67 | 3RD DOWN | 42.4%#54 |
| +5#15 | TO MARGIN | +1#61 |
| 0.17#60 | OFF PPA | 0.05#108 |
| 0.04#54 | DEF PPA | 0.16#111 |
| 40.8%#94 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.3%#81 |
| 36.8%#32 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.1%#101 |
| 42.0% | RET PROD | 14.5% |
| 1.34#17 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.09#131 |
| 1747 | ELO | 1515 |
| 12.3#27 | FPI | 2.2#58 |
| 18.0 | SP+ | -2.4 |
| 11.6 | SRS | -0.4 |
THE VENUE
Razorback StadiumLocationFayetteville, AR
Capacity80,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1938
Elevation1,325 ft
FAN NEWS
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