GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Iowa opens a 31.5-point favorite. Our model gives Iowa a 99% chance.
SeriesIowa leads 9–1 · Iowa won the last meeting, 33–7 · 2018
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
IOWA win
99% One-score game
4% Cover IOWA −31.5
64%
99% One-score game
4% Cover IOWA −31.5
64%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) IOWA
Home-field edge IOWA
Market lean IOWA
Model projection IOWA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Northern Illinois @ Iowa
Your sims:Sims: IOWA 0, NIU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois2025: 3–9 (2–6 MAC)
Lvs Kent State35–31Lvs Western Michigan35–19Wat Massachusetts45–3Northern Illinois2025: 3–9 (2–6 MAC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelIOWA 99%MarketIOWA 99%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $25,501 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADNIU +31.5IOWA −31.5
TOTALOver 44.5Under 44.5
MONEYLINENIU +5000IOWA −100000
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Northern Illinois vs Iowa Stats ComparisonNIU vs Iowa Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Northern IllinoisNIU | IowaIOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| 17.1#129 | PPG | 29.3#54 |
| 24.3#64 | PA/G | 16.1#8 |
| 284.4#133 | YDS/G | 320.1#119 |
| 98.8#134 | PASS/G | 143.2#129 |
| 185.6#29 | RUSH/G | 176.9#43 |
| 4.6#129 | YDS/PLAY | 5.3#97 |
| 31.8%#129 | 3RD DOWN | 43.5%#34 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +1#66 |
| 0.05#125 | OFF PPA | 0.15#80 |
| 0.19#89 | DEF PPA | 0.06#18 |
| 34.7%#131 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.1%#45 |
| 44.4%#109 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.6%#35 |
| 43.7% | RET PROD | 34.2% |
| 1.24#64 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.10#134 |
| -17.2 | SP+ | 14.6 |
| -14.5#125 | FPI | 10.6#25 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Kinnick StadiumLocationIowa City, IA
Capacity69,250
SurfaceTurf
Opened1929
Elevation724 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Northern Illinois or Iowa?
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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
