GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·StreamingESPN+
UTSA radioRoadrunner Radio Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
UTSA opens a 28.5-point favorite. Our model gives UTSA a 98% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
UT Rio Grande Valley
14
UTSA win
98% One-score game
6% Cover UTSA −28.5
60%
98% One-score game
6% Cover UTSA −28.5
60%
What's driving the model
Home-field edge UTSA
Market lean UTSA
Model projection UTSA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
UT Rio Grande Valley @ UTSA
Your sims:Sims: UTSA 0, RGV 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
UTSA97%- UT Rio Grande Valley5%
CFB Vibes ModelUTSA 98%MarketUTSA 97%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $66,254 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADRGV +28.5UTSA −28.5
TOTALOver 59.5Under 59.5
MONEYLINERGV +2500UTSA −9000
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
UT Rio Grande Valley vs UTSA Stats ComparisonRGV vs UTSA Stats Comparison
2025 stats| UT Rio Grande ValleyRGV | UTSAUTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| – | PPG | 35.5#14 |
| – | PA/G | 28.8#91 |
| – | YDS/G | 421.3#28 |
| – | PASS/G | 247.2#46 |
| – | RUSH/G | 174.1#52 |
| – | YDS/PLAY | 6.1#31 |
| – | 3RD DOWN | 39.7%#70 |
| – | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| – | OFF PPA | 0.20#43 |
| – | DEF PPA | 0.14#58 |
| – | OFF SUCCESS | 43.9%#47 |
| – | DEF SUCCESS | 38.0%#29 |
| – | RET PROD | 66.9% |
| – | EXPLOSIVE | 1.32#30 |
| – | SP+ | -1.1 |
| – | FPI | -5.3#88 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
AlamodomeLocationSan Antonio, TX
Capacity36,582
SurfaceTurf
Opened1993
Elevation661 ft
FAN NEWS
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