GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·IllinoisILL0–0·B1G
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Illinois opens a 27.5-point favorite. Our model gives Illinois a 98% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) ILL
Home-field edge ILL
Market lean ILL
Model projection ILL
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
UAB @ Illinois
Your sims:Sims: ILL 0, UAB 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelILL 98%MarketILL 97%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $41,023 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADUAB +27.5ILL −27.5
TOTALOver 54.5Under 54.5
MONEYLINEUAB +1700ILL −4500
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
UAB vs Illinois Stats ComparisonUAB vs Illinois Stats Comparison
2025 stats| UABUAB | IllinoisILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 26.4#77 | PPG | 29.4#52 |
| 38.2#135 | PA/G | 23.6#56 |
| 404.3#49 | YDS/G | 373.9#80 |
| 265.6#27 | PASS/G | 235.8#59 |
| 138.8#87 | RUSH/G | 138.2#88 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 5.9#46 |
| 46.4%#20 | 3RD DOWN | 42.1%#43 |
| 0.18#58 | OFF PPA | 0.21#39 |
| 0.32#135 | DEF PPA | 0.19#97 |
| 43.2%#57 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.5%#15 |
| 48.8%#132 | DEF SUCCESS | 45.0%#121 |
| 79.6% | RET PROD | 21.1% |
| 1.30#39 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#116 |
| −12#129 | TO MARGIN | +5#35 |
| -17.5 | SP+ | 10.4 |
| -15.5#128 | FPI | 6.3#39 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Memorial StadiumLocationChampaign, IL
Capacity60,670
SurfaceTurf
Opened1923
Elevation732 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
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