GAME DAY
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Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Buffalo opens a 3.5-point favorite. Our model gives Buffalo a 58% chance.
SeriesBowling Green leads 13–9 · Buffalo won the last meeting, 28–3 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) BUF
Home-field edge BUF
Market lean BUF
Model projection BUF
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Bowling Green @ Buffalo
Your sims:Sims: BUF 0, BGSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Bowling Green
Lvs Ball State32–31 (OT)Wvs Sacramento State38–10Wat Miami (OH)24–20
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelBUF 58%MarketBUF 62%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $128 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADBGSU +3.5BUF −3.5
TOTALOver 44.5Under 44.5
MONEYLINEBGSU +154BUF −185
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Bowling Green vs Buffalo Stats ComparisonBGSU vs Buffalo Stats Comparison
| Bowling GreenBGSU | BuffaloBUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 18#129 | PPG | 21.4#111 |
| 29.6#114 | PA/G | 25.6#85 |
| 280.4#136 | YDS/G | 324.3#120 |
| 174.4#121 | PASS/G | 159#128 |
| 106#127 | RUSH/G | 165.3#58 |
| 4.8#130 | YDS/PLAY | 4.3#136 |
| 36.5%#98 | 3RD DOWN | 36.8%#93 |
| 0.14#104 | DEF PPA | 0.09#79 |
| 38.9%#115 | OFF SUCCESS | 35.1%#131 |
| 46.7%#126 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.3%#46 |
| 1.08#133 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#105 |
| 1234 | ELO | 1360 |
| −1#82 | TO MARGIN | −4#111 |
| -0.01#124 | OFF PPA | 0.02#117 |
| -6.2% | RET PROD | -0.8% |
| -17.9 | SP+ | -13.9 |
| -17.7#129 | FPI | -12.9#114 |
| -14.0 | SRS | -14.6 |
THE VENUE
UB StadiumLocationAmherst, NY
Capacity30,270
SurfaceTurf
Opened1993
Elevation596 ft
FAN NEWS
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