GAME DAY
Week 5 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Washington State a 54% chance.
SeriesWashington State leads 4–2 · Washington State won the last meeting, 25–17 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FRES
Home-field edge WSU
Model projection WSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Fresno State @ Washington State
Your sims:Sims: WSU 0, FRES 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Fresno State
Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)
Wvs Miami (OH)18–3Wat San José State41–14Lvs Utah State28–17Fresno State2025: 9–4 (5–3 MWC)Washington State
Washington State2025: 7–6 (1–1 PAC)
Wvs Utah State34–21Wvs Oregon State32–8Lat James Madison24–20Washington State2025: 7–6 (1–1 PAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Fresno State vs Washington State Stats ComparisonFresno State vs WSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Fresno StateFRES | Washington StateWSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.8#81 | PPG | 22.5#105 |
| 18.8#16 | PA/G | 20.2#26 |
| 354.1#94 | YDS/G | 339.8#107 |
| 183.4#112 | PASS/G | 210.4#89 |
| 170.7#54 | RUSH/G | 129.5#101 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 5.2#104 |
| 36.4%#100 | 3RD DOWN | 38.1%#87 |
| 0.10#103 | OFF PPA | 0.13#92 |
| 0.08#31 | DEF PPA | 0.09#36 |
| 39.7%#105 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.6%#78 |
| 38.1%#31 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.9%#72 |
| 38.3% | RET PROD | 91.3% |
| 1.21#87 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.11#131 |
| +5#35 | TO MARGIN | −10#123 |
| -1.4 | SP+ | -4.3 |
| -2.5#77 | FPI | -4.1#83 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Gesa FieldLocationPullman, WA
Capacity32,952
SurfaceTurf
Opened1972
Elevation2,539 ft
FAN NEWS
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