GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives South Carolina a 76% chance.
SeriesSouth Carolina leads 10–7 · South Carolina won the last meeting, 37–30 · 2023
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SC
Home-field edge SC
Model projection SC
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Mississippi St @ South Carolina
Your sims:Sims: SC 0, MSST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Mississippi State
Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)
Lvs Wake Forest43–29Lvs Ole Miss38–19Lat Missouri49–27Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)South Carolina
South Carolina2025: 4–8 (1–7 SEC)
Lvs Clemson28–14Wvs Coastal Carolina51–7Lat Texas A&M31–30South Carolina2025: 4–8 (1–7 SEC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Mississippi State vs South Carolina Stats ComparisonMSST vs SC Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Mississippi StateMSST | South CarolinaSC | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.4#42 | PPG | 22.7#104 |
| 30.2#106 | PA/G | 22.1#44 |
| 399.2#56 | YDS/G | 336.8#109 |
| 241.4#54 | PASS/G | 225.2#67 |
| 157.8#68 | RUSH/G | 111.6#119 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#92 |
| 42.7%#38 | 3RD DOWN | 31.9%#128 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | +4#43 |
| 0.15#80 | OFF PPA | 0.10#102 |
| 0.20#107 | DEF PPA | 0.08#29 |
| 42.0%#73 | OFF SUCCESS | 38.2%#115 |
| 43.3%#94 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.8%#70 |
| 33.9% | RET PROD | 69.0% |
| 1.28#44 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.32#28 |
| 4.8 | SP+ | 12.6 |
| 4.1#49 | FPI | 11.7#23 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Williams-Brice StadiumLocationColumbia, SC
Capacity80,250
SurfaceGrass
Opened1934
Elevation199 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Mississippi State or South Carolina?
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