GAME DAY
Week 12 · · Watch College Football live with Fubo for $0 TodayWatch free on ▸ (opens in a new tab)
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Oregon a 87% chance.
SeriesOregon leads 5–3 · Oregon won the last meeting, 31–10 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ORE
Home-field edge MSU
Model projection ORE
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Oregon @ Michigan State
Your sims:Sims: MSU 0, ORE 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Michigan State
Lvs Northwestern24–21Lvs Illinois38–37 (OT)Lat Wisconsin31–3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Oregon vs Michigan State Stats ComparisonOregon vs MSU Stats Comparison
| OregonORE | Michigan StateMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 37#24 | PPG | 21.3#113 |
| 20.7#42 | PA/G | 25.4#82 |
| 420.3#49 | YDS/G | 310.7#128 |
| 283.3#18 | PASS/G | 191.6#107 |
| 137#99 | RUSH/G | 119.1#119 |
| 6#57 | YDS/PLAY | 4.8#130 |
| 37.0%#91 | 3RD DOWN | 40.2%#78 |
| 0.13#76 | OFF PPA | 0.02#118 |
| 42.8%#79 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.7%#66 |
| 35.1%#21 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.9%#99 |
| 75.3% | RET PROD | 20.9% |
| 1.25#56 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.06#135 |
| 1831 | ELO | 1463 |
| 19.0#10 | FPI | 1.7#61 |
| 17.3 | SRS | 1.7 |
| +0#70 | TO MARGIN | −5#121 |
| -0.04#16 | DEF PPA | 0.19#118 |
| 21.0 | SP+ | -1.2 |
THE VENUE
Spartan StadiumLocationEast Lansing, MI
Capacity75,005
SurfaceGrass
Opened1923
Elevation836 ft
FAN NEWS
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