GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Oregon a 92% chance.
SeriesOregon leads 5–3 · Oregon won the last meeting, 31–10 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ORE
Home-field edge MSU
Model projection ORE
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Oregon @ Michigan State
Your sims:Sims: MSU 0, ORE 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Oregon vs Michigan State Stats ComparisonOregon vs MSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| OregonORE | Michigan StateMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 36.9#10 | PPG | 24.6#89 |
| 17.9#12 | PA/G | 29.9#104 |
| 452.2#17 | YDS/G | 345.3#99 |
| 253.6#39 | PASS/G | 222.7#70 |
| 198.6#20 | RUSH/G | 122.7#110 |
| 6.9#8 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#92 |
| 46.5%#18 | 3RD DOWN | 34.6%#110 |
| 0.30#12 | OFF PPA | 0.13#90 |
| 0.04#13 | DEF PPA | 0.20#101 |
| 47.4%#16 | OFF SUCCESS | 42.1%#72 |
| 36.4%#15 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.6%#110 |
| 75.3% | RET PROD | 20.9% |
| 1.34#20 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#98 |
| 29.2 | SP+ | 2.2 |
| 25.3#4 | FPI | 0.3#65 |
| +6#27 | TO MARGIN | −3#86 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Spartan StadiumLocationEast Lansing, MI
Capacity75,005
SurfaceGrass
Opened1923
Elevation836 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Oregon or Michigan State?
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MORE WEEK 12 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
