GAME DAY
Week 12 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives UNLV a 82% chance.
SeriesSan José State leads 20–8–1 · UNLV won the last meeting, 27–16 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) UNLV
Home-field edge SJSU
Model projection UNLV
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
UNLV @ San José State
Your sims:Sims: SJSU 0, UNLV 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3UNLV
UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)
Lvs Memphis27–21UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)San José State
San José State2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)
Lat USC42–26San José State2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
UNLV vs San José State Stats ComparisonUNLV vs SJSU Stats Comparison
| UNLVUNLV | San José StateSJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | PPG | 26 |
| 27 | PA/G | 42 |
| 460 | YDS/G | 336 |
| 291 | PASS/G | 234 |
| 169 | RUSH/G | 102 |
| 5.8 | YDS/PLAY | 6 |
| 20.0% | 3RD DOWN | 45.5% |
| +1 | TO MARGIN | +1 |
| 0.09 | OFF PPA | 0.22 |
| 0.29 | DEF PPA | 0.39 |
| 33.3% | OFF SUCCESS | 43.9% |
| 47.5% | DEF SUCCESS | 66.2% |
| 15.4% | RET PROD | 3.8% |
| 1.46 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22 |
| 3.6 | SP+ | -15.7 |
| 1.8#58 | FPI | -14.3#124 |
THE VENUE
CEFCU StadiumLocationSan Jose, CA
Capacity30,456
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation93 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about UNLV or San José State?
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MORE WEEK 12 GAMES
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