GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·RutgersRUTG2–4·B1G
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Northwestern opens a 16.5-point favorite. Our model gives Northwestern a 88% chance.
SeriesRutgers leads 4–2 · Rutgers won the last meeting, 24–7 · 2023
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
NU win
88% One-score game
21% Cover NU −16.5
58%
88% One-score game
21% Cover NU −16.5
58%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) NU
Home-field edge NU
Market lean NU
Model projection NU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Rutgers @ Northwestern
Your sims:Sims: NU 0, RUTG 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Northwestern
Wat Michigan State24–21Wvs Ball State45–14Wvs Penn State34–13
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelNU 88%MarketNU 88%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $5,755 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:00 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADRUTG +16.5NU −16.5
TOTALOver 58.5Under 58.5
MONEYLINERUTG +550NU −800
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Rutgers vs Northwestern Stats ComparisonRutgers vs Northwestern Stats Comparison
| RutgersRUTG | NorthwesternNU | |
|---|---|---|
| 31.2#58 | PPG | 33.5#40 |
| 31.8#119 | PA/G | 17#26 |
| 404.7#61 | YDS/G | 424.5#44 |
| 265.8#35 | PASS/G | 233#67 |
| 138.8#96 | RUSH/G | 191.5#38 |
| 6.1#53 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#20 |
| 41.9%#58 | 3RD DOWN | 43.5%#47 |
| 0.15#69 | OFF PPA | 0.31#12 |
| 0.22#124 | DEF PPA | 0.06#64 |
| 45.5%#46 | OFF SUCCESS | 48.5%#22 |
| 45.5%#119 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.4%#108 |
| 44.4% | RET PROD | 88.5% |
| 1.32#25 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.33#24 |
| 1390 | ELO | 1720 |
| −5#120 | TO MARGIN | +7#10 |
| -5.3 | SP+ | 15.6 |
| -3.1#83 | FPI | 13.1#24 |
| -6.3 | SRS | 15.2 |
THE VENUE
Ryan FieldLocationEvanston, IL
Capacity35,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened2026
Elevation595 ft
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