GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Western Kentucky opens a 2.5-point favorite. Our model gives Western Kentucky a 57% chance.
SeriesWestern Kentucky leads 1–0 · Western Kentucky won the last meeting, 31–16 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) WKU
Home-field edge NEV
Market lean WKU
Model projection WKU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Western Kentucky @ Nevada
Your sims:Sims: NEV 0, WKU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky2025: 9–4 (6–2 CUSA)
Wvs Southern Miss27–16Lat Jacksonville State37–34Lat LSU13–10Western Kentucky2025: 9–4 (6–2 CUSA)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
- Western Kentucky55%
Nevada45%
CFB Vibes ModelWKU 57%MarketWKU 55%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $1,409 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADWKU −2.5NEV +2.5
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINEWKU −130NEV +110
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Western Kentucky vs Nevada Stats ComparisonWKU vs Nevada Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Western KentuckyWKU | NevadaNEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.5#49 | PPG | 17.6#128 |
| 22.8#47 | PA/G | 27.5#87 |
| 406.8#45 | YDS/G | 302.4#126 |
| 272.2#22 | PASS/G | 147.2#127 |
| 134.6#94 | RUSH/G | 155.2#73 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 5#117 |
| 45.9%#24 | 3RD DOWN | 32.1%#127 |
| 0.17#70 | OFF PPA | 0.03#127 |
| 0.10#39 | DEF PPA | 0.19#90 |
| 43.4%#53 | OFF SUCCESS | 37.1%#120 |
| 36.4%#15 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.6%#87 |
| 83.7% | RET PROD | 35.5% |
| 1.20#95 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.21#90 |
| −7#112 | TO MARGIN | −12#129 |
| -7.3 | SP+ | -11.7 |
| -4.9#86 | FPI | -11.9#116 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Mackay StadiumLocationReno, NV
Capacity27,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1966
Elevation4,615 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Western Kentucky or Nevada?
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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
