GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Pittsburgh a 70% chance.
SeriesPittsburgh leads 2–1 · Pittsburgh won the last meeting, 35–34 · 2019
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) PITT
Home-field edge PITT
Model projection PITT
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
UCF @ Pittsburgh
Your sims:Sims: PITT 0, UCF 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Pittsburgh57%
UCF43%
CFB Vibes ModelPITT 70%MarketPITT 57%
Market 13 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $208 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:51 PM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
UCF vs Pittsburgh Stats ComparisonUCF vs Pittsburgh Stats Comparison
2025 stats| UCFUCF | PittsburghPITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 24.3#90 | PPG | 33.7#20 |
| 23.6#56 | PA/G | 24.8#68 |
| 378.9#76 | YDS/G | 391.2#67 |
| 220.8#75 | PASS/G | 273.5#20 |
| 158.2#67 | RUSH/G | 117.7#116 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 5.7#65 |
| 33.9%#117 | 3RD DOWN | 33.3%#120 |
| 0.15#83 | OFF PPA | 0.17#61 |
| 0.11#52 | DEF PPA | 0.07#27 |
| 39.9%#100 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.3%#98 |
| 42.3%#80 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.6%#11 |
| 24.8% | RET PROD | 39.7% |
| 1.37#11 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.34#19 |
| 1.7 | SP+ | 6.2 |
| 2.1#57 | FPI | 6.6#36 |
| −4#98 | TO MARGIN | −2#81 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Acrisure StadiumLocationPittsburgh, PA
Capacity68,400
SurfaceGrass
Opened2001
Elevation724 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about UCF or Pittsburgh?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 2 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
