GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Oregon opens a 24.5-point favorite. Our model gives Oregon a 94% chance.
SeriesBoise State leads 3–1 · Oregon won the last meeting, 37–34 · 2024
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) ORE
Home-field edge ORE
Market lean ORE
Model projection ORE
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Boise State @ Oregon
Your sims:Sims: ORE 0, BOIS 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADBOIS +24.5ORE −24.5
TOTALOver 51.5Under 51.5
MONEYLINEBOIS +1200ORE −2400
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Boise State vs Oregon Stats ComparisonBoise State vs Oregon Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Boise StateBOIS | OregonORE | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.9#46 | PPG | 36.9#10 |
| 24.1#61 | PA/G | 17.9#12 |
| 424.3#24 | YDS/G | 452.2#17 |
| 244.9#51 | PASS/G | 253.6#39 |
| 179.4#38 | RUSH/G | 198.6#20 |
| 5.8#55 | YDS/PLAY | 6.9#8 |
| 45.8%#26 | 3RD DOWN | 46.5%#18 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +6#27 |
| 0.17#60 | OFF PPA | 0.30#12 |
| 0.10#42 | DEF PPA | 0.04#13 |
| 40.9%#86 | OFF SUCCESS | 47.4%#16 |
| 35.3%#8 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.4%#15 |
| 66.3% | RET PROD | 75.3% |
| 1.30#36 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.34#20 |
| 5.1 | SP+ | 29.2 |
| 4.0#50 | FPI | 25.3#4 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Autzen StadiumLocationEugene, OR
Capacity54,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1967
Elevation418 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Boise State or Oregon?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
