GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Florida International a 83% chance.
SeriesMiddle Tennessee leads 14–7 · Florida International won the last meeting, 56–30 · 2025
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
FIU win
83% One-score game
25%
83% One-score game
25%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) FIU
Home-field edge FIU
Model projection FIU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International
Your sims:Sims: FIU 0, MTSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)
Wat New Mexico State31–24 (OT)Wvs Sam Houston31–17Lat Western Kentucky42–26Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)Florida International
Florida International2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)
Lvs UTSA57–20Wvs Sam Houston56–16Wvs Jacksonville State27–21Florida International2025: 7–6 (5–3 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Middle Tennessee vs Florida International Stats ComparisonMTSU vs FIU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Middle TennesseeMTSU | Florida InternationalFIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.4#107 | PPG | 28.5#61 |
| 30.9#115 | PA/G | 30#105 |
| 371#82 | YDS/G | 397#59 |
| 264.9#28 | PASS/G | 215.4#87 |
| 106.1#121 | RUSH/G | 181.6#36 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 5.6#74 |
| 37.1%#93 | 3RD DOWN | 35.8%#103 |
| 0.14#85 | OFF PPA | 0.16#78 |
| 0.21#111 | DEF PPA | 0.15#66 |
| 42.2%#70 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.7%#89 |
| 44.1%#104 | DEF SUCCESS | 41.9%#72 |
| 32.5% | RET PROD | 31.6% |
| 1.22#78 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.31#35 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | +0#72 |
| -26.5 | SP+ | -14.5 |
| -16.1#130 | FPI | -12.6#119 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Pitbull StadiumLocationMiami, FL
Capacity20,000
SurfaceTurf
Opened1995
Elevation20 ft
FAN NEWS
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