GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·Terms & eligibility
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Florida International opens a 10-point favorite. Our model gives Florida International a 77% chance.
SeriesMiddle Tennessee leads 14–7 since 2005 · Florida International won the last meeting, 56–30 · 2025
77% One-score game
32% Cover FIU −10
55%
What's driving the model
Your sims:Sims: FIU 0, MTSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $117,997 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Middle Tennessee vs Florida International Stats ComparisonMTSU vs FIU Stats Comparison
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | Florida InternationalFIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 22.8#103 | PPG | 19.7#122 |
| 28.3#109 | PA/G | 14.7#9 |
| 321.5#122 | YDS/G | 382.7#76 |
| 200.7#98 | PASS/G | 262.7#37 |
| 120.8#115 | RUSH/G | 120#117 |
| 5.6#86 | YDS/PLAY | 5.4#104 |
| 26.2%#137 | 3RD DOWN | 46.4%#29 |
| 0.13#80 | OFF PPA | 0.03#113 |
| 39.2%#113 | OFF SUCCESS | 39.4%#109 |
| 49.1%#133 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.4%#22 |
| 32.5% | RET PROD | 31.6% |
| 1.26#52 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.14#113 |
| 1149 | ELO | 1424 |
| +4#22 | TO MARGIN | −1#82 |
| 0.22#123 | DEF PPA | -0.03#25 |
| -19.5 | SP+ | -5.4 |
| -18.3#130 | FPI | -9.2#103 |
| -16.9 | SRS | -8.7 |
THE VENUE
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