GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·Murray StateMUR–
StreamingESPN+
MTSU radioBlue Raider Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Middle Tennessee opens a 20.5-point favorite. Our model gives Middle Tennessee a 90% chance.
SeriesMiddle Tennessee leads 2–0 · Middle Tennessee won the last meeting, 35–14 · 2023
What's driving the model
Home-field edge MTSU
Market lean MTSU
Model projection MTSU
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Murray State @ Middle Tennessee
Your sims:Sims: MTSU 0, MUR 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)
Wat New Mexico State31–24 (OT)Wvs Sam Houston31–17Lat Western Kentucky42–26Middle Tennessee2025: 3–9 (2–6 CUSA)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMUR +20.5MTSU −20.5
TOTALOver 59.5Under 59.5
MONEYLINEMUR +1100MTSU −2100
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Murray State vs Middle Tennessee Stats ComparisonMurray State vs MTSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Murray StateMUR | Middle TennesseeMTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| – | PPG | 22.4#107 |
| – | PA/G | 30.9#115 |
| – | YDS/G | 371#82 |
| – | PASS/G | 264.9#28 |
| – | RUSH/G | 106.1#121 |
| – | YDS/PLAY | 5.5#81 |
| – | 3RD DOWN | 37.1%#93 |
| – | TO MARGIN | +2#54 |
| – | OFF PPA | 0.14#85 |
| – | DEF PPA | 0.21#111 |
| – | OFF SUCCESS | 42.2%#70 |
| – | DEF SUCCESS | 44.1%#104 |
| – | RET PROD | 32.5% |
| – | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#78 |
| – | SP+ | -26.5 |
| – | FPI | -16.1#130 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Johnny "Red" Floyd StadiumLocationMurfreesboro, TN
Capacity30,788
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation629 ft
FAN NEWS
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TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
