GAME DAY
Week 7 · TBDFSU radioSeminole Sports Network
MIA radioHurricane Sports Network
CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Miami opens a 16.5-point favorite. Our model gives Miami a 85% chance.
SeriesMiami leads 37–33 · Miami won the last meeting, 28–22 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge MIA
Market lean MIA
Model projection MIA
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Florida State @ Miami
Your sims:Sims: MIA 0, FSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Florida State
Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)
Wvs New Mexico State34–17Florida State2026: 1–0 (0–0 ACC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADFSU +16.5MIA −16.5
TOTALOver 53.5Under 53.5
MONEYLINEFSU +750MIA −1200
DraftKings · updated Sep 2, 12:32 AM ETNot gambling advice
Florida State vs Miami Stats ComparisonFSU vs Miami Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Florida StateFSU | MiamiMIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 33#22 | PPG | 30.9#35 |
| 22#43 | PA/G | 14.8#5 |
| 472.2#6 | YDS/G | 404.9#48 |
| 253.4#40 | PASS/G | 253.2#41 |
| 218.8#11 | RUSH/G | 151.8#77 |
| 6.7#13 | YDS/PLAY | 6.1#31 |
| 50.6%#8 | 3RD DOWN | 46.5%#18 |
| 0.30#14 | OFF PPA | 0.22#32 |
| 0.15#63 | DEF PPA | 0.03#12 |
| 47.2%#17 | OFF SUCCESS | 46.8%#20 |
| 40.5%#55 | DEF SUCCESS | 35.9%#13 |
| 40.1% | RET PROD | 36.9% |
| 1.36#16 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.16#120 |
| 9.1 | SP+ | 22.0 |
| 9.3#28 | FPI | 21.8#7 |
| −5#103 | TO MARGIN | +10#11 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Hard Rock StadiumLocationMiami Gardens, FL
Capacity64,767
SurfaceTurf
Opened1987
Elevation9 ft
FAN NEWS
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