GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Memphis opens a 11.5-point favorite. Our model gives Memphis a 75% chance.
SeriesMemphis leads 20–8–3 · Memphis won the last meeting, 37–3 · 2023
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) MEM
Home-field edge MEM
Market lean MEM
Model projection MEM
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Arkansas State @ Memphis
Your sims:Sims: MEM 0, ARST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Memphis
Memphis2026: 1–0 (0–0 AAC)
Wat UNLV27–21Memphis2026: 1–0 (0–0 AAC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADARST +11.5MEM −11.5
TOTALOver 52.5Under 52.5
MONEYLINEARST +340MEM −440
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Arkansas State vs Memphis Stats ComparisonARST vs Memphis Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Arkansas StateARST | MemphisMEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 25.2#87 | PPG | 32.5#25 |
| 27.4#84 | PA/G | 23.2#52 |
| 383.3#74 | YDS/G | 411.5#36 |
| 259.8#32 | PASS/G | 228.4#65 |
| 123.5#108 | RUSH/G | 183.2#32 |
| 5.2#104 | YDS/PLAY | 6.1#31 |
| 39.3%#74 | 3RD DOWN | 41.7%#45 |
| 0.09#110 | OFF PPA | 0.24#24 |
| 0.19#97 | DEF PPA | 0.17#78 |
| 41.9%#75 | OFF SUCCESS | 44.9%#39 |
| 43.6%#97 | DEF SUCCESS | 40.9%#59 |
| 30.0% | RET PROD | 5.6% |
| 1.15#121 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.31#33 |
| −7#112 | TO MARGIN | +7#21 |
| -11.6 | SP+ | 0.3 |
| -9.2#107 | FPI | -1.9#74 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Simmons Bank Liberty StadiumLocationMemphis, TN
Capacity58,325
SurfaceTurf
Opened1965
Elevation297 ft
FAN NEWS
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MORE WEEK 1 GAMES
TIMES SHOWN IN VENUE LOCAL TIME
