GAME DAY
Week 13 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Ole Miss opens a 14.5-point favorite. Our model gives Ole Miss a 82% chance.
SeriesOle Miss leads 67–47–5 · Ole Miss won the last meeting, 38–19 · 2025
What's driving the model
Home-field edge MISS
Market lean MISS
Model projection MISS
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss
Your sims:Sims: MISS 0, MSST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Mississippi State
Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)
Lvs Wake Forest43–29Lvs Ole Miss38–19Lat Missouri49–27Mississippi State2025: 5–8 (1–7 SEC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMSST +14.5MISS −14.5
TOTALOver 56.5Under 56.5
MONEYLINEMSST +500MISS −700
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Stats ComparisonMSST vs Ole Miss Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Mississippi StateMSST | Ole MissMISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 30.4#42 | PPG | 36.9#10 |
| 30.2#106 | PA/G | 21.1#37 |
| 399.2#56 | YDS/G | 490.1#2 |
| 241.4#54 | PASS/G | 313.3#3 |
| 157.8#68 | RUSH/G | 176.7#45 |
| 5.5#81 | YDS/PLAY | 6.7#13 |
| 42.7%#38 | 3RD DOWN | 43.1%#36 |
| +3#46 | TO MARGIN | +1#66 |
| 0.15#80 | OFF PPA | 0.31#11 |
| 0.20#107 | DEF PPA | 0.11#49 |
| 42.0%#73 | OFF SUCCESS | 48.5%#12 |
| 43.3%#94 | DEF SUCCESS | 38.8%#38 |
| 33.9% | RET PROD | 50.3% |
| 1.28#44 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.28#45 |
| 4.8 | SP+ | 16.5 |
| 4.1#49 | FPI | 16.0#14 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Vaught-Hemingway StadiumLocationOxford, MS
Capacity64,038
SurfaceGrass
Opened1915
Elevation482 ft
FAN NEWS
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