GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Ole Miss opens a 14.5-point favorite. Our model gives Ole Miss a 82% chance.
SeriesOle Miss leads 67–47–5 · Ole Miss won the last meeting, 38–19 · 2025
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) MISS
Home-field edge MISS
Market lean MISS
Model projection MISS
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss
Your sims:Sims: MISS 0, MSST 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADMSST +14.5MISS −14.5
TOTALOver 57.5Under 57.5
MONEYLINEMSST +440MISS −600
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Mississippi State vs Ole Miss Stats ComparisonMSST vs Ole Miss Stats Comparison
| Mississippi StateMSST | Ole MissMISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 32.5#48 | PPG | 37.5#20 |
| 28.5#111 | PA/G | 23.8#72 |
| 454.3#22 | YDS/G | 444.5#36 |
| 277.8#22 | PASS/G | 290.7#12 |
| 176.5#50 | RUSH/G | 153.8#72 |
| 6.4#37 | YDS/PLAY | 6.5#28 |
| 46.2%#32 | 3RD DOWN | 47.9%#24 |
| 0.20#44 | OFF PPA | 0.28#17 |
| 0.12#97 | DEF PPA | 0.12#95 |
| 47.8%#32 | OFF SUCCESS | 51.9%#4 |
| 44.8%#116 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.8%#98 |
| 33.9% | RET PROD | 50.3% |
| 1.24#65 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.15#108 |
| 1558 | ELO | 1935 |
| 12.6 | SP+ | 15.9 |
| 9.1#38 | FPI | 18.8#11 |
| 9.6 | SRS | 17.6 |
| −3#100 | TO MARGIN | −1#82 |
THE VENUE
Vaught-Hemingway StadiumLocationOxford, MS
Capacity64,038
SurfaceGrass
Opened1915
Elevation482 ft
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