GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·Texas A&MTA&M4–3·SEC
AlabamaALA5–2·SEC
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Alabama opens a 14-point favorite. Our model gives Alabama a 84% chance.
SeriesAlabama leads 13–3 · Alabama won the last meeting, 26–20 · 2023
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
ALA win
84% One-score game
26% Cover ALA −14
54%
84% One-score game
26% Cover ALA −14
54%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) ALA
Home-field edge ALA
Market lean ALA
Model projection ALA
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
Texas A&M @ Alabama
Your sims:Sims: ALA 0, TA&M 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelALA 84%MarketALA 84%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $108,166 traded · as of Oct 20, 6:20 AM ETInformation only
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADTA&M +14ALA −14
TOTALOver 50.5Under 50.5
MONEYLINETA&M +470ALA −650
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Texas A&M vs Alabama Stats ComparisonTexas A&M vs Alabama Stats Comparison
| Texas A&MTA&M | AlabamaALA | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.4#70 | PPG | 39.3#12 |
| 17.1#27 | PA/G | 21.4#48 |
| 356.9#97 | YDS/G | 416.6#51 |
| 195.4#103 | PASS/G | 252.7#48 |
| 161.4#63 | RUSH/G | 163.9#61 |
| 5.2#114 | YDS/PLAY | 6.6#23 |
| 42.7%#53 | 3RD DOWN | 43.4%#50 |
| +2#47 | TO MARGIN | +5#16 |
| 0.09#92 | OFF PPA | 0.25#24 |
| 43.8%#64 | OFF SUCCESS | 48.0%#28 |
| 36.6%#31 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.8%#32 |
| 72.8% | RET PROD | 26.4% |
| 1.08#132 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.29#37 |
| 1739 | ELO | 1934 |
| 8.0 | SP+ | 23.0 |
| 13.5#20 | FPI | 24.2#6 |
| 7.9 | SRS | 24.6 |
| -0.03#27 | DEF PPA | -0.04#21 |
THE VENUE
Bryant-Denny StadiumLocationTuscaloosa, AL
Capacity101,821
SurfaceGrass
Opened1929
Elevation230 ft
FAN NEWS
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