GAME DAY
Week 8 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Hawai'i opens a 4.5-point favorite. Our model gives Hawai'i a 61% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) HAW
Home-field edge NIU
Market lean HAW
Model projection HAW
Each game samples a margin around the market spread and a final total around the market total.
Hawai'i @ Northern Illinois
Your sims:Sims: NIU 0, HAW 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Northern Illinois
Lat Wyoming41–23Lvs Air Force28–7Lat Georgia State35–14
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelHAW 61%MarketHAW 65%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $661 traded · as of Oct 20, 7:40 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADHAW −4.5NIU +4.5
TOTALOver 47.5Under 47.5
MONEYLINEHAW −198NIU +164
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
Hawai'i vs Northern Illinois Stats ComparisonHawai'i vs NIU Stats Comparison
| Hawai'iHAW | Northern IllinoisNIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 15.7#133 | PPG | 14.2#137 |
| 25#79 | PA/G | 35.7#132 |
| 345.1#104 | YDS/G | 307.7#130 |
| 267.7#31 | PASS/G | 206.7#95 |
| 77.4#138 | RUSH/G | 101#133 |
| 4.9#124 | YDS/PLAY | 4.9#124 |
| 36.3%#101 | 3RD DOWN | 30.9%#128 |
| 0.19#117 | DEF PPA | 0.22#122 |
| 38.8%#116 | OFF SUCCESS | 37.0%#128 |
| 44.6%#115 | DEF SUCCESS | 49.9%#136 |
| 64.5% | RET PROD | 43.7% |
| 1.12#121 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.20#87 |
| 1344 | ELO | 1139 |
| −2#91 | TO MARGIN | −1#82 |
| 0.01#120 | OFF PPA | -0.07#132 |
| -12.9 | SP+ | -23.5 |
| -12.3#111 | FPI | -20.1#131 |
| -17.2 | SRS | -20.1 |
THE VENUE
Huskie StadiumLocationDeKalb, IL
Capacity23,595
SurfaceTurf
Opened1965
Elevation877 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Hawai'i or Northern Illinois?
Link a team hub in a post on your own blog and it shows up here, in front of the fans looking for exactly it. Free, no exclusivity, and the link back to you is the whole point.
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