GAME DAY
Week 10 · TBDCFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives San José State a 63% chance.
SeriesNorthern Illinois leads 1–0 · Northern Illinois won the last meeting, 18–17 · 1995
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
SJSU win
63% One-score game
37%
63% One-score game
37%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SJSU
Home-field edge SJSU
Model projection SJSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Northern Illinois @ San José St
Your sims:Sims: SJSU 0, NIU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3San José State
San José State2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)
Lat USC42–26San José State2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Northern Illinois vs San José State Stats ComparisonNIU vs SJSU Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Northern IllinoisNIU | San José StateSJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 17.1#129 | PPG | 21.4#113 |
| 24.3#64 | PA/G | 32.5#121 |
| 284.4#133 | YDS/G | 403.2#50 |
| 98.8#134 | PASS/G | 283.2#13 |
| 185.6#29 | RUSH/G | 120.1#111 |
| 4.6#129 | YDS/PLAY | 6#38 |
| 31.8%#129 | 3RD DOWN | 42.6%#39 |
| 0.05#125 | OFF PPA | 0.17#64 |
| 0.19#89 | DEF PPA | 0.20#105 |
| 34.7%#131 | OFF SUCCESS | 43.2%#57 |
| 44.4%#109 | DEF SUCCESS | 42.4%#83 |
| 43.7% | RET PROD | 3.8% |
| 1.24#64 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.25#62 |
| +2#54 | TO MARGIN | −13#133 |
| -17.2 | SP+ | -15.7 |
| -14.5#125 | FPI | -14.3#124 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
CEFCU StadiumLocationSan Jose, CA
Capacity30,456
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation93 ft
FAN NEWS
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