GAME DAY
Week 10 · TBDCFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives San José State a 82% chance.
SeriesNorthern Illinois leads 1–0 · Northern Illinois won the last meeting, 18–17 · 1995
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
SJSU win
82% One-score game
26%
82% One-score game
26%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) SJSU
Home-field edge SJSU
Model projection SJSU
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Northern Illinois @ San José St
Your sims:Sims: SJSU 0, NIU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Northern Illinois
Lat Wyoming41–23Lvs Air Force28–7Lat Georgia State35–14
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Northern Illinois vs San José State Stats ComparisonNIU vs SJSU Stats Comparison
| Northern IllinoisNIU | San José StateSJSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 14.2#137 | PPG | 21.4#111 |
| 35.7#132 | PA/G | 21.7#50 |
| 307.7#130 | YDS/G | 384.7#74 |
| 206.7#95 | PASS/G | 246#53 |
| 101#133 | RUSH/G | 138.7#97 |
| 4.9#124 | YDS/PLAY | 5.8#70 |
| 30.9%#128 | 3RD DOWN | 34.4%#111 |
| 0.22#122 | DEF PPA | 0.07#72 |
| 37.0%#128 | OFF SUCCESS | 40.3%#100 |
| 49.9%#136 | DEF SUCCESS | 43.2%#104 |
| 43.7% | RET PROD | 3.8% |
| 1.20#87 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.17#100 |
| 1139 | ELO | 1380 |
| −1#82 | TO MARGIN | +0#70 |
| -0.07#132 | OFF PPA | 0.13#77 |
| -23.5 | SP+ | -12.2 |
| -20.1#131 | FPI | -12.5#112 |
| -20.1 | SRS | -13.1 |
THE VENUE
CEFCU StadiumLocationSan Jose, CA
Capacity30,456
SurfaceTurf
Opened1933
Elevation93 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Northern Illinois or San José State?
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