GAME DAY
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CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
New Mexico opens a 4.5-point favorite. Our model gives New Mexico a 65% chance.
SeriesFirst meeting
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
UNM win
65% One-score game
38% Cover UNM −4.5
53%
65% One-score game
38% Cover UNM −4.5
53%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) UNM
Home-field edge UNM
Market lean UNM
Model projection UNM
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
North Dakota State @ New Mexico
Your sims:Sims: UNM 0, NDSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3
Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
CFB Vibes ModelUNM 65%MarketUNM 65%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $18,150 traded · as of Oct 20, 6:20 AM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADNDSU +4.5UNM −4.5
TOTALOver 41.5Under 41.5
MONEYLINENDSU +170UNM −205
DraftKings · updated Oct 20, 6:02 AM ETNot gambling advice
North Dakota State vs New Mexico Stats ComparisonNDSU vs New Mexico Stats Comparison
| North Dakota StateNDSU | New MexicoUNM | |
|---|---|---|
| 29.4#70 | PPG | 39.7#10 |
| 11.3#2 | PA/G | 10.5#1 |
| 362#91 | YDS/G | 377.5#82 |
| 187.3#112 | PASS/G | 163#127 |
| 174.7#51 | RUSH/G | 214.5#21 |
| 5.6#86 | YDS/PLAY | 5.9#65 |
| 41.3%#68 | 3RD DOWN | 41.6%#65 |
| +8#6 | TO MARGIN | +17#1 |
| 0.13#77 | OFF PPA | 0.16#62 |
| 41.3%#91 | OFF SUCCESS | 41.8%#86 |
| 36.5%#28 | DEF SUCCESS | 32.4%#1 |
| 1.26#55 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.27#45 |
| 1634 | ELO | 1677 |
| 8.6 | SP+ | 12.3 |
| 2.4 | SRS | 7.2 |
| -0.14#3 | DEF PPA | -0.15#2 |
| – | RET PROD | 58.2% |
| -0.2#71 | FPI | 7.8#43 |
THE VENUE
University Stadium (NM)LocationAlbuquerque, NM
Capacity39,224
SurfaceTurf
Opened1960
Elevation5,100 ft
FAN NEWS
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