GAME DAY
Week 3 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives Notre Dame a 96% chance.
SeriesNotre Dame leads 44–28–1 · Notre Dame won the last meeting, 38–18 · 2017
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) ND
Home-field edge ND
Model projection ND
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
Michigan State @ Notre Dame
Your sims:Sims: ND 0, MSU 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame Stats ComparisonMSU vs Notre Dame Stats Comparison
2025 stats| Michigan StateMSU | Notre DameND | |
|---|---|---|
| 24.6#89 | PPG | 42#2 |
| 29.9#104 | PA/G | 17.6#10 |
| 345.3#99 | YDS/G | 459.5#12 |
| 222.7#70 | PASS/G | 255.1#37 |
| 122.7#110 | RUSH/G | 204.4#17 |
| 5.4#92 | YDS/PLAY | 7.5#1 |
| 34.6%#110 | 3RD DOWN | 48.1%#13 |
| 0.13#90 | OFF PPA | 0.33#6 |
| 0.20#101 | DEF PPA | 0.02#9 |
| 42.1%#72 | OFF SUCCESS | 46.3%#24 |
| 44.6%#110 | DEF SUCCESS | 36.3%#14 |
| 20.9% | RET PROD | 51.2% |
| 1.20#98 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.50#1 |
| 2.2 | SP+ | 26.5 |
| 0.3#65 | FPI | 25.9#3 |
| −3#86 | TO MARGIN | +13#7 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Notre Dame StadiumLocationNotre Dame, IN
Capacity80,795
SurfaceTurf
Opened1930
Elevation730 ft
FAN NEWS
2026 seasonWrite about Michigan State or Notre Dame?
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