GAME DAY
Week 1 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Indiana opens a 39.5-point favorite. Our model gives Indiana a 99% chance.
SeriesSeries tied 1–1 · Indiana won the last meeting, 49–24 · 2014
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
IU win
99% One-score game
4% Cover IU −39.5
41%
99% One-score game
4% Cover IU −39.5
41%
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) IU
Home-field edge IU
Market lean IU
Model projection IU
Each game samples a margin around the Kalshi market price and a final total around the market total.
North Texas @ Indiana
Your sims:Sims: IU 0, UNT 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
Indiana99%
North Texas2%
CFB Vibes ModelIU 99%MarketIU 99%
Model and market agree
Kalshi · $123,830 traded · as of Sep 1, 8:06 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →SPREADUNT +40.5IU −40.5
TOTALOver 55.5Under 55.5
DraftKings · updated Sep 1, 6:27 PM ETNot gambling advice
North Texas vs Indiana Stats ComparisonNorth Texas vs Indiana Stats Comparison
2025 stats| North TexasUNT | IndianaIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 45.1#1 | PPG | 41.6#3 |
| 26.5#76 | PA/G | 11.7#2 |
| 511.4#1 | YDS/G | 456.3#13 |
| 317.3#2 | PASS/G | 239.1#55 |
| 194.1#25 | RUSH/G | 217.2#12 |
| 7.2#3 | YDS/PLAY | 6.9#8 |
| 45.9%#24 | 3RD DOWN | 56.3%#1 |
| +9#14 | TO MARGIN | +22#1 |
| 0.35#2 | OFF PPA | 0.34#5 |
| 0.16#74 | DEF PPA | 0.01#7 |
| 51.6%#2 | OFF SUCCESS | 51.3%#3 |
| 42.0%#77 | DEF SUCCESS | 34.4%#6 |
| 2.5% | RET PROD | 16.6% |
| 1.31#33 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.22#74 |
| -11.6 | SP+ | 25.8 |
| -6.4#90 | FPI | 23.1#6 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
Memorial StadiumLocationBloomington, IN
Capacity52,656
SurfaceTurf
Opened1960
Elevation760 ft
FAN NEWS
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