UNLV @ North Texas, Week 2 · 2026
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GAME DAY
Week 2 · ·CFB VIBES MODEL (CVM)CVM MODELThe CFB Vibes Model is our game simulator. It replays this matchup 10,000 times using team ratings, the betting line and home-field edge, then reports how often each side wins and the most likely score.How has it done? Track record →
10,000 simulations10k SimsThe Read
Our model gives North Texas a 24% chance.
SeriesUNLV leads 5–1 · UNLV won the last meeting, 58–27 · 2022
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (SP+) UNLV
Home-field edge UNT
Model projection UNLV
Each game samples a margin around our projection from this season's ratings and a final total around a league-typical total.
UNLV @ North Texas
Your sims:Sims: UNT 0, UNLV 0
HOW THEY GOT HERE
last 3UNLV
UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)
Lvs Memphis27–21UNLV2026: 0–1 (0–0 MWC)Prediction Market
See All Prediction Markets →All →Market-implied win probability
- UNLV57%
North Texas46%
CFB Vibes ModelUNLV 76%MarketUNLV 57%
Market 19 points lower than our model
Kalshi · $88 traded · as of Sep 1, 9:36 PM ETInformation only
Each side is a separate contract, so the two need not total exactly 100%.
Betting Lines
See All Betting Odds →All →No betting lines have been posted for this game yet.
North Texas vs UNLV Stats ComparisonNorth Texas vs UNLV Stats Comparison
2025 stats| North TexasUNT | UNLVUNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| 45.1#1 | PPG | 34.1#17 |
| 26.5#76 | PA/G | 28#89 |
| 511.4#1 | YDS/G | 446.8#21 |
| 317.3#2 | PASS/G | 250.9#42 |
| 194.1#25 | RUSH/G | 195.9#23 |
| 7.2#3 | YDS/PLAY | 6.8#11 |
| 45.9%#24 | 3RD DOWN | 45.2%#28 |
| +9#14 | TO MARGIN | +7#21 |
| 0.35#2 | OFF PPA | 0.30#17 |
| 0.16#74 | DEF PPA | 0.21#111 |
| 51.6%#2 | OFF SUCCESS | 46.6%#23 |
| 42.0%#77 | DEF SUCCESS | 44.1%#104 |
| 2.5% | RET PROD | 15.4% |
| 1.31#33 | EXPLOSIVE | 1.36#14 |
| -11.6 | SP+ | 3.6 |
| -6.4#90 | FPI | 1.8#58 |
2025 season stats and 2026 season ratings. 2026 has not published these numbers yet.
THE VENUE
DATCU StadiumLocationDenton, TX
Capacity30,850
SurfaceTurf
Opened2011
Elevation652 ft
FAN NEWS
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