Miami leads 4–2 · Last: Miami 10, Texas A&M 3 · 2025
Based on 2025 final ratings. 2026 ratings publish once the season is under way, and this simulation will use them automatically.
Simulator
AT MIAMI · 2025 ELO MODEL
#8 Texas A&M vs #7 Miami
10,000 sims run
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
Miami
31
Texas A&M
22
MIA win
73% One-score game
34%
73% One-score game
34%
SIMULATED MARGIN DISTRIBUTION
■ TA&M win ■ MIA win
TA&M 42+MIA 42+
Each game samples a margin around the Elo-implied margin and a final total around a league-typical total.
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) MIA
Home-field edge MIA
Model projection MIA
Miami wins 73% of 10,000 simulations at Miami using 2025 final ratings.
TALE OF THE TAPE · 2025 FINAL
1872ELO2014
20.7SP+20.7
18.4FPI22.4
16.6SRS22.2
The same 10,000-run Monte Carlo the game pages run, driven by team Elo. Tap either team name to swap in a new team (top-ranked teams suggest first), the VS badge to flip sides, and the venue chips to grant either side home field (worth about 2.5 points). Every pairing has its own shareable link.
For entertainment only — never betting advice.