Georgia leads 3–1 · Last: Notre Dame 23, Georgia 10 · 2024
Based on 2025 final ratings. 2026 ratings publish once the season is under way, and this simulation will use them automatically.
Simulator
AT NOTRE DAME · 2025 ELO MODEL
#3 Georgia vs #4 Notre Dame
10,000 sims run
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
Notre Dame
33
Georgia
21
ND win
77% One-score game
32%
77% One-score game
32%
SIMULATED MARGIN DISTRIBUTION
■ UGA win ■ ND win
UGA 42+ND 42+
Each game samples a margin around the Elo-implied margin and a final total around a league-typical total.
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) ND
Home-field edge ND
Model projection ND
Notre Dame wins 77% of 10,000 simulations at Notre Dame using 2025 final ratings.
TALE OF THE TAPE · 2025 FINAL
2057ELO2243
24.1SP+24.4
21.4FPI25.3
16.0SRS24.1
The same 10,000-run Monte Carlo the game pages run, driven by team Elo. Tap either team name to swap in a new team (top-ranked teams suggest first), the VS badge to flip sides, and the venue chips to grant either side home field (worth about 2.5 points). Every pairing has its own shareable link.
For entertainment only — never betting advice.