Georgia leads 3–1 · Last: Notre Dame 23, Georgia 10 · 2024
Based on 2025 final ratings. 2026 ratings publish once the season is under way, and this simulation will use them automatically.
Simulator
AT GEORGIA · 2025 ELO MODEL
#4 Notre Dame vs #3 Georgia
10,000 sims run
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
Notre Dame
28
Georgia
25
UGA win
43% One-score game
40%
43% One-score game
40%
SIMULATED MARGIN DISTRIBUTION
■ ND win ■ UGA win
ND 42+UGA 42+
Each game samples a margin around the Elo-implied margin and a final total around a league-typical total.
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) ND
Home-field edge UGA
Model projection ND
Notre Dame wins 57% of 10,000 simulations at Georgia using 2025 final ratings.
TALE OF THE TAPE · 2025 FINAL
2243ELO2057
24.4SP+24.1
25.3FPI21.4
24.1SRS16.0
The same 10,000-run Monte Carlo the game pages run, driven by team Elo. Tap either team name to swap in a new team (top-ranked teams suggest first), the VS badge to flip sides, and the venue chips to grant either side home field (worth about 2.5 points). Every pairing has its own shareable link.
For entertainment only — never betting advice.