Miami leads 4–2 · Last: Miami 10, Texas A&M 3 · 2025
Based on 2025 final ratings. 2026 ratings publish once the season is under way, and this simulation will use them automatically.
Simulator
AT TEXAS A&M · 2025 ELO MODEL
#7 Miami vs #8 Texas A&M
10,000 sims run
WIN PROBABILITY
PROJECTED FINAL
Miami
28
Texas A&M
26
TA&M win
45% One-score game
42%
45% One-score game
42%
SIMULATED MARGIN DISTRIBUTION
■ MIA win ■ TA&M win
MIA 42+TA&M 42+
Each game samples a margin around the Elo-implied margin and a final total around a league-typical total.
What's driving the model
Ratings edge (Elo) MIA
Home-field edge TA&M
Model projection MIA
Miami wins 55% of 10,000 simulations at Texas A&M using 2025 final ratings.
TALE OF THE TAPE · 2025 FINAL
2014ELO1872
20.7SP+20.7
22.4FPI18.4
22.2SRS16.6
The same 10,000-run Monte Carlo the game pages run, driven by team Elo. Tap either team name to swap in a new team (top-ranked teams suggest first), the VS badge to flip sides, and the venue chips to grant either side home field (worth about 2.5 points). Every pairing has its own shareable link.
For entertainment only — never betting advice.